The tools are in place, the regime has started, in part at least, with a monthly membership to the Racing Post for all the data and videos needed for the new adventure. However, there is a problem, there is so much racing on. 6 meetings on a Thursday in December. 39 races in all to be analysed. With over 340 runners to look at, on what would be a quieter day in the racing calendar, the task is an impossible one.
This point was raised in several of the tutorial videos watched with those who have made it as pro-punters. “You can’t be good at everything” seems a very poignant phrase. With the best part of 10,000 races each year in Britain and Ireland, there simply isn’t the time to watch and learn from it all. Another consistent phrase is “to find an edge”, an angle over the bookmakers in an area that might have been overlooked.
With this in mind, I have decided to begin with the All Weather Winter Championships. October to April, when the majority of the racing world is watching the jumps and the lead up to Cheltenham, the Flat takes a back seat. However, for this reason the All Weather scene can be somewhat overlooked and it is an area that I have always been able to find the occasional winner.
One of the major benefits of choosing the All Weather in the winter, is that it eliminates the key factor of the ground. Polytrack, Tapeta or Fibresand, there is a much reduced variation in conditions. It also allows for a simpler analysis process for the races, whilst Newcastle and Lingfield do have their undulations, it is limited in comparison to the main turf tracks. Horses also seem to have a marmite relationship with the various surfaces, they either take to it or they don’t, another point in my favour.
The most basic point to any race is simple, the fastest horse over the distance will win the race. With this in mind, I will be looking to track and follow the overall times of the races run, as well as watching each race with a view to the pace and run styles. The time speed gurus out there will tell you that they always have an edge, primarily because races are priced based more on form than exact figures. There is more than enough evidence to suggest this is true, although, it will be equally important to watch each race several times, as the actual time can be affected by the race itself, the field size, the pace set, etc.
For those of you familiar with the coloured squares analysis tool, used by so many corporate companies to pigeon-hole their employees into Characters, you will understand what I mean by saying ” I am blue”. Blue, for those who don’t know, means I am cautious, analytical, relying more on patience and statistics than feel and instinct. Now that punting has gone from a past-time to a full-time occupation, my nature requires me to produce data to back up any decisions that I will make. Spreadsheets to record times, form figures and punting strategies will be needed to accompany the adventure. Most probably, with a 1000 strong horse tracker to boot.
The plan is to start slow, £20 budget with stakes no more than £1, a simple aim to break even, dipping a toe in the water to see where we go. In many ways December is perfect, early nights limit the amount of racing and provide more time for analysis and reflection, plus the benefit of 4 days without racing in the build up to the Boxing Day highlights.
The first step down the road has been taken.
Fingers Crossed
The Novice Punters Diary 