Understanding Multiples

I am a great reader. In racing, as in other walks of life, I feel it is important to gain as much understanding as possible. The more information that you have at your disposal, the better informed you are to make a decision.

With this in mind, I purchased a book, recommended from an interview with a famous pro-punter, “Value Betting”, by Mark Coton (the original Pricewyse for those who don’t know).

The Book was written in an age when Betfair, even online betting did not exist, there was still taxation on off-course betting, the betting ring was thriving and Racing was still a cash based society. The Book refers to the days when early prices meant waiting at 10am for the Betting shop to open, hoping the price would still be there, or, waiting on hold for your call to be answered, with the worry that those ahead of you in the queue are getting a better price than you will eventually be offered.

In some ways, aspects of the book are no longer relevant. Overnight markets are the norm for all British and Irish racing, markets are governed by the exchanges more than ever, with the on course bookmakers more of a side show. The modern world of betting on a mobile phone, FOBT’s and Virtual Racing seemed an elaborate dream at that time. However, the book raises a simple point, backing a winner has not changed.

In the 30 years since it was published, the method of betting may have changed, but the overall principle has remained the same. Winning.

1 Key point that I have taken from the book, is the need to fully understand multiple bets. Lucky 15s, Trixie’s, Patents, Union Jack, Alphabets….the list goes on. My go to bet for a few selections has always been a Yankee. For those who don’t know, it involves 4 picks in 6 doubles, 4 trebles and a 4-fold accumulator. I have placed an innumerable number of these bets over the years, even now, when it has become more serious, it is still my preferred method.

However, I have never really considered the overall strategy of the bet, with my eyes more drawn to the total payout in the unlikely event that all 4 come in. Using the simple analogy of the toss of a coin, it is easy to show how the Yankee is heavily in the bookies favour. A Yankee requires 2 winners to yield a return, a 50% strike rate, how many punters can say that they achieve that on a regular basis?

If you imagine placing a Yankee on 4 tosses of a coin, all Heads, this gives you 4 even money shots at true odds. In reality, with 50/50 chances, on average you would receive 2 winners, giving a return of 4 points, from an 11 point stake and all this at even money odds. Factor in all of the variables that come with horse racing and the odds are stacked even further in the bookies favour.

Add in the lack of reward for finding 1 winner, a 25% strike rate and it has made me question my whole strategy. The same principle applies with a Trixie, a Canadian and a Heinz.

My aim has always been to break even, to prove to myself and others that I can do this, that my knowledge is better than 99.9% of the betting public. As a racing fan, betting for fun, the dream of landing the life changing multiple was always there and to some extent it will never go away. In my lifetime, I have landed just 3 multiples with 4 winners. None have paid more than around £1,200. I don’t have the data, but it would be an interesting read to see what percentage I have made a profit with.

Being a Gambler is about winning. Your opinion being right. To expect to back winners all the time, with every selection, given the variables in racing, would be totally impossible. To average a 50% strike rate, would not be far off impossible given the variables, so perhaps it is time for a change of strategy. If I back 1 winner in every 4 selections, I will be doing ok.

• Value Betting, by Mark Coton was purchased for £2.80 (plus shipping) and is well worth a read for any punter.