A Change of Direction

I am now 6 weeks in. 6 weeks of pretty much non-stop racing. Living the dream and making it work. Right now, I’m in profit. Not enough to retire on, but to a level stake of £1, I’m up £18.63.

Sure, mistakes have been made. A few too many multiples and a few losers backed at short odds when I should probably have walked away, but the aim was always to break even and I have achieved that. I am still working with small stakes, minor amounts and combinations so that the losses, when they come, are small. This has helped on the bad days, as it has been easier to walk away, but it also makes it frustrating on the good days, as the inevitable question of what if I had been bolder with my stakes?

So far, I have stuck to the All-Weather. One of the main reasons for this, was to pick an area to specialise in that I already had a decent knowledge of, but also to try and limit the range of selections. As an example, by betting on All-Weather Handicaps, the advantages of knowing that the going is unlikely to change significantly from 1 meeting to the next, the long established draw bias over certain course and distances and the fact that it is easier to decide from the form book whether or not a horse handles an artificial surface, all add up to give a slight edge.

However, there are some disadvantages to following the all-weather. Firstly, the competitive nature of the racing makes it more difficult. Yes, low grade all-weather handicaps do get plenty of crabbing, but whilst the quality may sometimes be lacking, having 10-12 horses in a tight 52-59 handicap can make life tough. Indeed, from 1 week in December, my selections finished 114233233412341. Solid results and proof that I was on the right track, but lots of hard luck stories, being in the wrong place on the track or just finding 1 too good on the day.

The other downside is the opportunity to make a solid profit from a formline. With a few exceptions, most horses running on the all-weather are there for a reason. They either prefer the sand to the turf, or, as is more likely, they are lower level performers and whilst they will most likely find a race or 2, they are not likely to ever climb that high up the ladder and as such are run for the enjoyment of their owners and trainers, rather than any serious prospects. As a result, when you have such a large pool of horses, with similar levels of ability, even a small rise in the handicap following a win, can often put them up to a mark beyond their capability.

There are some exceptions, 3 wins from Agent of Fortune in quick succession for example, but on the whole horses on the database with great times from late November and December, have, in my opinion now gone beyond a sensible mark. For this reason, I have decided to try something else.

Right now, I’m not sure what area to focus on. There are lots of choices, one of the real benefits to loving racing is the variety. Whilst the ultimate aim is to make this a viable choice (and if I’m honest returning to the workplace now would be very tough), that is not a decision or a need that I have right now in January 2020. As I said at the start, the unlimited support from the missus has been invaluable, as more than anything else it gives me time to find me feet and the change of direction is simply step 2 on that journey.