A Sure Thing

The last week has been full of excitement. Cheltenham fever is now in full swing and having enjoyed the Dublin Racing festival immensely, the usual quandary of knowing who and what to back at the Festival is underway. There are 2 major points I feel I need to make about the festival, first, the strict rules I have based my punting on will go out of the window for those 4 days. Not betting in handicaps, Novice races only, set stakes and no multiples….hardly likely to follow that at Cheltenham. If anything, I will see the week as a break from the rulebook. However, the second point, is that the careful study will be continued, far more than in years gone by, where I have been far too cavalier.

Anyway, that is 5 weeks away and there is plenty of time to talk about Cheltenham. The last 2 weeks have been very interesting. Probably, in the last 5 years, this has been the quietest betting period I can remember. There were 2 days last week, when after a long look over the cards, there was simply nothing to back. For this reason, I left the racing alone. Nothing wrong with that and, having checked the results at the end of the day, I didn’t have any real feeling of missing a winner. Andy Gibson, a very successful pro-gambler, stated on a Starsports betting people interview that he doesn’t bet Monday to Wednesday, when generally the quality of racing is at its lowest. The lower grade horses are by their nature and form, less consistent and so the chance of being turned over or let down are increased. As an example, todays 7 race card at Sedgefield (04-02-20) has no race above Class 4. This point has really hit home for me in recent weeks, when the old thought of “every race has a winner” has to be thrown to one side.

Yes, this thought process has no doubt saved me money in races where I would have made a bet more in hope than expectation. However, not having a bet does mean that I am not making any money either. Fine for a normal punter, but hardly a good situation for someone hoping to make their living this way.

With that in mind, it is even more important to make money from the good things. Last Monday, Sirwilliamwallace, a very decent Novice hurdler from the Sandy Thomson yard was favourite for the opener at Kelso. He had been in my tracker following a very solid 2nd in an exceptional time at Ayr in early January. The form was already working out, with the 3rd having run a very solid time at Ayr again the weekend prior. I studied the race on the Sunday night and could find nothing likely to land a glove, leading me to expect him to be 1-2 on come the morning.

He opened 7-4. 7-4! Not a life changing price, but several points higher than I made him. At this point, with no other bet leaping out at me on the day, I should have gone in. A big bet was needed here. A horse I had been waiting for had been expertly placed and was going to win. This is going to be a rare occurrence, maybe once or twice a season will this come up, yet there was something nagging away in the back of my mind that stopped me plowing in.

Had I missed something? Was there an improver that I had somehow overlooked? Would he fall? No, No and No. He bolted up. Jumped off in front and never saw a rival. He was also backed in from 7-4 to 4-5 before the off. I had made a profit, with £6 at 7-4. £10.50 profit made from a 6 point win. However, there was a real feeling that the chance for something more was long gone.

Falling is a part of jumps racing, the same risk for nearly every bet placed and you just have to accept that it might happen. However, the form book is there for all to see and study. I had picked over the race for over an hour without ever finding a threat to Sirwilliamwallace. The only thing that had beaten me was the doubt in my own judgement, something that will need to be overcome in future if this is going to work.