Narrowing the Field

It’s been an OK week. When most punters are asked how their luck is, they respond either with “great” if they’re on the up, or the famous “just about breaking even”, which can mean anything from breaking even to a monumental loss with a brave face on it. This week has not been a disaster, but the betting account reached £104 last Monday and this morning, with a couple of ante-post bets in place, we are at £98. The proverbial 0-0 draw with the bookies in the last week.

Yes, there have been some highs. Bob and Co winning the Hunters Chase at Bangor, with Ballynagour in 2nd, landing me a winner, a betting without winner and a forecast to boot. Add to that a small 50p each way on Gay Kelleways 33-1 Novice Hurdle winner at Ludlow and a decent bet on Getaway to theRock for Alistair Ralph on the same card and the mid-week was not too bad. However, come Saturday and defeats for Nube Negra, Stolen Silver and Two Taffs leave me back where I started last week.

In hindsight, Saturday was careless. I am convinced Esprit Du Large is the Arkle Winner, for that reason, Nube Negra’s 2nd in the Henry VIII at Sandown before Christmas was rock solid form. 5/4 on Saturday seemed a fair price and I perhaps overlooked the form of Rouge Vif. Had I studied the race with more care, I could perhaps have seen the danger and covered it with a forecast. Hey Ho. We live and learn and all that. In reality, turning in with the lead was a massive advantage at Warwick and in truth, Nube Negra was beaten 3 out. Two Taffs ran his race to be 2nd in a competitive handicap, but was also behind turning in and Clondaw Castle took advantage.

Those 2 I can let go. However, Stolen Silver is another matter. When trying to make a profit as a punter, avoiding 20 runner plus competitive handicap hurdles must surely be high on the list of do’s and don’ts. Yet, here I was placing an each-way bet in this race (all be it with 6 places offered by the bookie). Unsurprisingly he was unplaced. The carnage after the fall of Lightly Squeeze at the last didn’t help, but I suspect that if the race was run 20 times, we would get 20 different results. As such, betting in this race with a view to trying to make money was foolish at best. If I had backed Hurricane Fly or Istabraq in this field, it would still have been a bad bet.

Learning when to bet and when not to is the key. Discipline. Sticking to races you can fairly assess and make a sound judgement on, an 8 runner race takes less time than a 24 runner race to assess and so more care can be taken. Yes, there will be exceptions at the big festivals and the Grand National of course, but in the main, there are enough races to study without picking the impossible ones.