The Novice Punters Diary

Coping with Disappointment

The break in racing between Saturday 21st December and Christmas has been a hot topic this year. A fierce debate, fuelled by a somewhat controversial newspaper article, has divided opinion between those on the side of stable staff who deserve time to be with their families at this time of year and those who would race on Christmas Day given the opportunity. For myself, it allowed a good time for reflection. A few weeks into the adventure and a decent opportunity to take stock, at this stage it’s going ok, a B+ I would say. Around £8 profit to a level £1 stake from around 15 bets placed. My aim was always to break even, stop losing, before ever thinking about making a profit.

The other benefit to the 5 day break is the opportunity to study the post-christmas racing. In particular, the 2 day meeting at Wolverhampton, armed with my data from the last month, I was in confident mood. The card on Boxing Day looked promising, Necoleta and Robero both stand out on the times that they have been able to run in recent weeks. So confident in fact, that I’m prepared to share them with several friends and family who ask for a tip for Boxing Day.

For my own part, I’ve invested in both, wasting a free £5 bet on a Win Double. Perhaps it was the overload of Christmas Food and Drink, or just the general cheeriness of the season, but I have ignored the careful rules set down and invested (slightly) over the limits set. Robero finishes 3rd to Ghaith, beaten 6 lengths to a Christmas good thing. The pain of that defeat has since been added to by Robero winning just 3 days later at Southwell when I had perhaps written him off.

Never mind, Necoleta was by far the stronger of my 2 fancies, her time in winning just 7 days earlier was over a second quicker than other recent times over Course and Distance. She was a relatively warm order at 9/4fav, but I had expected a price of 6/4 so was happy to take it. Never looked like winning would be a fair description. Although beaten less than 4 lengths, she never looked like landing a blow. A stunned silence on my phone from those I shared the tip with was to follow.

When researching the way forwards for this career choice, everyone had different methods learning from defeat. Backing losers is a much bigger part of this life than the winners. Staying calm, not chasing and accepting form for what it is will be a key. It doesn’t help the immediate sinking feeling and the sudden appearance of a red figure on the spreadsheet. A further defeat for Fizzy Feet at Lingfield today hasn’t really helped, a horse who met so much trouble in running she did amazingly well to finish 4th.

Staying calm is key. The strategy was working well just a week ago, bad luck is a part of every punters existence. It will happen, horses are not machines, they will have off days, they will meet trouble in running and will make mistakes. Stay the course and the luck will come, hopefully.

Happy New Year

Learning to Stop and Think

A few days into the journey and it’s not going too badly, Saturday night winners at Wolverhampton can be hard to come by, but Reeves (4/1) and Enmeshing (11/2), both found from the race times research idea, helped get me off to a flyer. It could even have been better, but for Mojambo being mown down near the line by the fast finishing Fair Power. All in all though, I can’t complain with a decent profit from the All Weather Card.

However, this was the first Saturday of the new career and as such the first real time that I had a test of the discipline that was required. With an afternoon packed with racing from Cheltenham and Doncaster, plus the lure of 40 plus domestic football matches to peruse, the temptation to have a bit of a punt outside the parameters set was there from the off. Several of my “Cliff horses” loitered the card at Cheltenham, like the proverbial Christmas chocolates, sitting there in the cupboard on 15th December, luring us in. I did my best to resist, but Ballyandy at 20/1 for the international was too much, luckily he powered up the Cheltenham hill to finish second and I was able to come out unscathed. This was an eye-opening experience.

What sets the successful professionals apart from the average punter is discipline. The ability to follow a process, research endlessly to find a bet, but then to stick to only that process. Not to be lured in by the millions of available bets across every imaginable sport and otherwise. This is where the change will hit hardest.

An interesting phrase that I have picked up from my research is ” if you win you’re a professional, if you lose you are an addict”. Perhaps an extreme view of the game, but by being a pro, or attempting to, this has changed betting from a pastime to a career. As such, it needs to be viewed as work, the days of throwing a lucky 31 at a Saturday card, even if just for interest, need to be abandoned. Accountability is the hardest part of the choice I have made, going from a punter to an investor, where my choices and actions will, in the long run affect how successful this will be. For that reason, the skill will perhaps be more knowing when not to bet, when not to get involved. Today is Tuesday, there is no all weather racing today (my chosen specialist subject), so there is no need to even consider betting.

Time away to review and reflect is just as important as the actual betting process itself.

Becoming a Specialist

The tools are in place, the regime has started, in part at least, with a monthly membership to the Racing Post for all the data and videos needed for the new adventure. However, there is a problem, there is so much racing on. 6 meetings on a Thursday in December. 39 races in all to be analysed. With over 340 runners to look at, on what would be a quieter day in the racing calendar, the task is an impossible one.

This point was raised in several of the tutorial videos watched with those who have made it as pro-punters. “You can’t be good at everything” seems a very poignant phrase. With the best part of 10,000 races each year in Britain and Ireland, there simply isn’t the time to watch and learn from it all. Another consistent phrase is “to find an edge”, an angle over the bookmakers in an area that might have been overlooked.

With this in mind, I have decided to begin with the All Weather Winter Championships. October to April, when the majority of the racing world is watching the jumps and the lead up to Cheltenham, the Flat takes a back seat. However, for this reason the All Weather scene can be somewhat overlooked and it is an area that I have always been able to find the occasional winner.

One of the major benefits of choosing the All Weather in the winter, is that it eliminates the key factor of the ground. Polytrack, Tapeta or Fibresand, there is a much reduced variation in conditions. It also allows for a simpler analysis process for the races, whilst Newcastle and Lingfield do have their undulations, it is limited in comparison to the main turf tracks. Horses also seem to have a marmite relationship with the various surfaces, they either take to it or they don’t, another point in my favour.

The most basic point to any race is simple, the fastest horse over the distance will win the race. With this in mind, I will be looking to track and follow the overall times of the races run, as well as watching each race with a view to the pace and run styles. The time speed gurus out there will tell you that they always have an edge, primarily because races are priced based more on form than exact figures. There is more than enough evidence to suggest this is true, although, it will be equally important to watch each race several times, as the actual time can be affected by the race itself, the field size, the pace set, etc.

For those of you familiar with the coloured squares analysis tool, used by so many corporate companies to pigeon-hole their employees into Characters, you will understand what I mean by saying ” I am blue”. Blue, for those who don’t know, means I am cautious, analytical, relying more on patience and statistics than feel and instinct. Now that punting has gone from a past-time to a full-time occupation, my nature requires me to produce data to back up any decisions that I will make. Spreadsheets to record times, form figures and punting strategies will be needed to accompany the adventure. Most probably, with a 1000 strong horse tracker to boot.

The plan is to start slow, £20 budget with stakes no more than £1, a simple aim to break even, dipping a toe in the water to see where we go. In many ways December is perfect, early nights limit the amount of racing and provide more time for analysis and reflection, plus the benefit of 4 days without racing in the build up to the Boxing Day highlights.

The first step down the road has been taken.

Fingers Crossed

Staying in Control

Day 1: This is not an entirely new proposition to me, having been a punter for several years, with limited success, mainly sticking to Horses and Football. However, there is a world of difference between trying to land a 10p each-way lucky 15 or a football ACCA on a Saturday and trying to make a living this way.

Careful research has been started, watching various Youtube tutorials from established pro-punters, reading every book and newspaper article on the subject I can lay my hands on. Lesson 1 is obvious, this is not easy. There is a perception that being a pro punter is a glamorous, easier lifestyle than working a 9-5 in an office. Clearly, from all I have seen it isn’t, this is going to consume more than the usual 8 hours per day. Being a professional will need discipline and dedication to levels far beyond those of the average fan.

Facing the facts is going to be hard, the likelihood of winning the jackpot on day 1 is Nil. From all the videos I have watched in my research, 1 phrase has stuck in my head more than any other; “You’re going to back a lot of Losers” Any punter who professes to never lose, is kidding themselves and others. In reality, the betting industry is worth billions of pounds each year for a reason. 99.9% of Punters don’t make a profit.

I have never considered myself to have any issue with my gambling levels, far from it. The first and most important step for anyone placing a bet is the old theory, assume you are going to lose and never gamble money that you can’t afford to part with. Caution has always been one of my methods, each way small stakes punting, looking for value and horses that won’t be out of the frame, or double chance bets on the football, cash-outs and cover bets wherever possible, with a view that if it doesn’t win, I might not lose. Doesn’t always work, but it makes me feel better none the less. This is going to be a steep learning curve for me, as unlikely ever before, a loser will mean more.

So, taking this into account, I have decided to start with a simple set of tools to help me manage this new career choice.

The most important tool is without doubt the wife. Her support is vital to me, she is truly amazing as when I suggested this idea, she was on board without a question. That means so much. Her eyes are independent, she indulges my passion for the sport, but doesn’t have the interest I do. As a result, she will be able to look at this from an objective point of view. Together, we have agreed a budget for this venture, setup the betting accounts, updated the deposit limits, put together a spreadsheet to monitor the turnover, the bets placed, the daily, weekly and monthly profit (or loss). We can monitor this together, so that there is a cheques and balances approach to the betting. Having someone there to support and guide me will be essential, for 2 reasons, it will mean the there is someone there to tell me when it’s going well and when it’s not. But, it will also mean that there is someone to be accountable to, which will help me to stay in control when the inevitable losers happen.

It goes without saying, that there is no money to be made from quickly placed rash bets on the next race up. This is going to require some very careful research and study. Watching videos, reading form, statistics, times, course data and everything else out there, is going to have to become my life.

The aim for week 1 is simple, break even. It will be the same for weeks 2, 3, 4 and beyond. I’m not looking to win £1million overnight. Breaking even is job 1. If this can be regularly achieved then I will be ahead of 99.9% of Punters.

Fingers Crossed